Asteroid 2024 YR4 will most likely not collide with Earth
Planet Volumes
The European Space Agency (ESA) has significantly reduced the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032 to 0.001% following new observations, effectively eliminating the threat. The impact probability was originally estimated to be 3.1 per cent by NASA and 2.8 per cent by ESA, a record risk. However, after additional observations from ground-based telescopes around the world, the uncertainty zone was reduced and the probability of impact was almost completely eliminated.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024 and is between 40 and 90 metres in size, comparable to a football field. On impact with Earth, it could destroy an entire city. Initially, the date of the possible impact was calculated for 22 December 2032, but it is now believed that the asteroid will simply fly past the Earth.
Previously, the threat level on the Torino Collision Hazard Scale was set at three out of ten, which meant that there was a moderate chance of a collision with serious consequences. However, the threat level has now been reduced to zero, eliminating any risk.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 initially became a record-breaking impact probability because of the large zone of uncertainty in its trajectory. Within a week of its discovery, the impact risk was estimated to be 3.1 per cent according to NASA and 2.8 per cent according to ESA. This caused serious concern in the planetary defence community, and astronomers began actively tracking the object.
After telescopes were deployed around the world, scientists were able to significantly refine the asteroid's trajectory, which reduced the area of uncertainty. This made it possible to rule out a direct collision and reduce the risk to 0.001%.
However, the James Webb Space Telescope will continue to observe the asteroid in the coming months to get even more precise data on its trajectory and physical characteristics.
Although the risk of collision is minimal, scientists emphasise the importance of early detection of such objects. ESA's Head of Planetary Defence Richard Moissl (Richard Moissl) said that the operation to observe and rule out the threat was "a very exciting and instructive exercise", which showed the effectiveness of current monitoring systems, but also highlighted the need for further improvements.
In the coming years, several new telescopes will help astronomers detect dangerous objects faster. Among them are Vera Rubin and Flyeye, which will soon begin operations. In addition, the European NEOMIR early warning mission, currently under development, will be an important addition to the planetary defence system.
