The EU and asylum: the rise of positive solutions and new migration realities

According to fresh data from Eurostat, European Union countries will have 437,900 positive decisions on international protection in 2024. This represents an increase of 7 per cent compared to 409,530 in 2023. The increase is due to both an increase in the number of applications submitted and a greater recognition of the need for refugee status, subsidiary or humanitarian protection.

Of the total number of decisions, 42 per cent were recognised refugee status, 39 per cent granted subsidiary protection and another 19 per cent granted humanitarian status determined at the national level. Compared to the previous year, the number of decisions granting refugee status increased by 6 per cent, subsidiary protection by 19 per cent, while humanitarian protection was granted less frequently, with a decrease of 9 per cent.

Germany has the most decisions in 2024 with 150,500, which is a third of the total. France is second with 65,230 positive responses and Spain is third, with 50,915. These three countries together took 61 per cent of all international protection decisions in the EU.

Syrian nationals dominate among asylum seekers, accounting for 32 per cent of all positive decisions. Afghan nationals come second (17 per cent) and Venezuelans third (8 per cent). Applicants from Sudan, Eritrea and Iran also show high levels of recognition.

In 2024, the EU had 754,525 initial decisions on asylum applications and 185,455 final decisions after appeals. Of these, 387,635 were favourable at the initial stage and a further 50,265 at the review stage. The recognition rate was therefore 51 per cent at the initial stage and 27 per cent at the appeal stage.

Syrian nationals receive protection more often than others: 92 per cent of applications from Syrians were granted at the first instance. The recognition rate for Venezuelans was 89 per cent and 81 per cent for Afghans. At the appeal stage, Syrians (72 per cent), Afghans (42 per cent) and Nigerians (30 per cent) remain the most likely to succeed.

Despite the increase in positive decisions, the total number of asylum applications submitted decreased by 13 per cent compared to the previous year. This indicates a decrease in pressure on the reception system. However, processing systems remain busy due to backlogs of cases, repeat applications and the continued temporary protection of Ukrainian citizens - as of February 2025, 4.3 million people were under this form of protection.